2005 Kentucky Derby Watch

Giacomo Shocks the Derby

2005-05-08T19:01:00.000-07:00

This post may seem a little late coming on Sunday night, but it's taken that long to get over the shock of Giacomo upsetting the Kentucky Derby at 50-1. Actually, I just finally got to a computer now after a whirlwind Derby week chock full of surprises, none bigger than the Derby itself. In a thrilling stretch duel, Giacomo edged past 70-1 longshot Closing Argument and Afleet Alex late to win the Derby by a half length in a final time of 202.75 which was very slow considering the track was playing lightning fast. The pace of the race was torrid with the first two fractions coming 22.2 and 45.3. This set up the race perfectly for the closers. It was no surprise to see the off the pace horses end up in front, but the surprise was which horse was ahead of them all. It appeared in mid stretch that it would be a duel between Closing Argument and Afleet Alex that would decide it, but Giacomo was coming fast on the outside and had more energy late to outfinish them at the wire. Trainer John Sheriffs won the Derby in his first try while jockey Mike Smith finally got a win after a few second place finishes in the past. Afleet Alex appeared to have a little traffic trouble on the turn and in the stretch, nothing severe that cost him the race. It may come into question whether Jeremy Rose moved him a bit too early, but there's no obvious answer and is up for debate. Afleet Alex appeared to be a little tired towards the end, but ran his guts out to finish third, clearly best of the main contenders. The big disappointment in the race was favorite Bellamy Road who faded to finish 7th by about 6-7 lengths. He sat a few lengths off the pace on the outside, was right in the mix at the top of the lane, but eventually tired late. It was hard to tell if it was being too close to the pace that hurt him or that he just wasn't the same Bellamy Road as in the Wood. I believe that any horse close to that pace would have his chances compromised, but if the same Bellamy Road from the Wood showed up, he would have been fine. Nick Zito had a tough day seeing all of his five horses finish off the board. Local jockey Ramon Dominguez also had a tough time as High Limit finished dead last in a very poor effort. However, it was found that High Limit had both hind legs gashed when Sun King ran up behind him and stepped on High Limit's legs. Dominguez was very cautious after noticing the horse in pain, and nursed High Limit to the wire. After the race, blood was found dripping down the legs and the deep cuts were discovered soon after. Not to beat my chest (because I did not do well in the Derby either), but I was very negative on Bandini and did not feel he would run as well as many thought. Maybe the dullest performance of the day came from Bandini who only beat one horse, that being the troubled High Limit. Yes my two negative opinions on contenders (High Fly and Bandini) proved to be correct, but moral victories do not exist at the track.

As for my betting endeavors this Derby week. The actual Derby did not go as planned, although I do not know many who were even close to having this race. I made a smaller bet than anticipated on Afleet Alex because he went off only 4-1, a tick lower than expected. He was still a value in my opinion, but not as great of a value as if he was closer to 6-1. I also made a small wager on Wilko who went off a generous 21-1, though he made little impact and finished 6th. That being said it was an immensely successful Derby week for me. The undercard Saturday along with the rest of the week was huge, particularly the six or seven races before the Derby. Javier Castellano still had good a Derby Day in my eyes after guiding My Trusty Cat to upset heavy 2-5 favorite Madcap Escapade on the undercard which resulted in a massive score in the pick 3 for me. Those of us who play this game seriously understand that the Derby is just another race from a betting perspective. In fact, the Derby was one of my lighter plays during the week.

All in all it was an exciting few months, a fantastic final week of racing and betting, culminating in a huge shocker in the Derby. It has been a pleasure keeping you up to date on all the latest news and giving some insight and analysis of my own. The Triple Crown Series now shifts north to Baltimore and Pimlico Race Course for the Preakness. There will be a lot of critics claiming that Giacomo cannot repeat, and there will be many of the same horses lining up in two weeks to get some revenge. Whether you're a fan, a bettor, or like most of us, both, this truly is the greatest game on earth.

More Derby Coverage

Derby Analysis and Picks

2005-05-05T15:36:00.000-07:00

Here it is, the moment everyone has been waiting for since the Breeder's Cup. The last few months have been exciting, but nothing close to the next few days. What follows will be a horse by horse analysis, along with my opinions on the winner and how to bet the race.

1. Sort it Out

Wasn't even considered for this race until he ran second two weeks ago in a weak running of the Lexington. He will try to settle off the pace and close. Not on the same level as others in here, though he is trained by Baffert. He's a deserving longshot.

2. Andromeda's Hero

One of the five bullets for Nick Zito, and clearly the weakest of them. Finished a distant third to Afleet Alex in Arkansas last out, but someone had to run third in that race. Does not appear to be good enough.

3. Sun King

Used to be the Derby favorite a few months back but since returned with a dull effort in the Bluegrass. You have to believe Zito was not going all out in that race, so a big move forward would not surprise me. He has the talent and could be a good value play.

4. Noble Causeway

This guy has some great human connections in Zito and Stevens. He has not won a stakes race, but is getting good quickly including a second in the Fla Derby. Has the right running style for this race and could hit the board at a price.

5. Coin Silver

He looked good winning the Lexington for Pletcher, but the race came back slow numbers wise. Silver needs to move forward again to contend with this field, and I am not sure that will happen.

6. High Limit

I have a future book ticket on this horse at big odds, so I will be rooting for him, and so will most of Delaware, since he's ridden by Ramon Dominguez. Similar to Sun King in that his dull Bluegrass can be forgiven. This is the race Frankel has wanted. It will be tough to win off of two preps, but I feel this guy has a great shot at a fairly good price. Watch out for this one.

7. Flower Alley

Has improved rapidly like most Pletcher horses. However, he will need to improve even more off the second to Afleet Alex. He gets blinkers which should keep him more focused. Certainly can hit the board but I cannot endorse for the win.

8. Greater Good

After reeling off three wins in a row, he totally bombed in Arkansas despite a nice setup. Appears to be going in the wrong direction and does not appear good enough anyway.

9. Greeley's Galaxy

Ran his best race by far winning the Illinois Derby. He never raced at 2 and has no foundation. No doubt he has talent, but I do not know if the time is right for him to show it all. I am on the fence with this guy, and would lean against if the odds were too low.

10. Giacomo

He tries hard but has only won one race in his career and has not been facing the toughest competition. We were waiting for him to show his stuff and he never did. Consider him an outsider.

11. High Fly

Another horse I have a big future book ticket on, but I am not as confident in this guy. Loves to win, but has not been ultra impressive in his last two in Fla. There are questions whether he wants to go the distance and when you consider he will be around 8-1 or 10-1, you have to take a stand against.

12. Afleet Alex

The lung infection has cleared up and this guy is back with a vengance. Won the Arkansas Derby by 8 lengths after being regarded as maybe the best two year old in the nation last year. Looks like the second most talented horse in the race. Should get a nice off the pace trip and provided Rose gives him a good ride, he will be tough to hold off in the lane.

13. Spanish Chestnut

Won't waste space here. Only entered to be a rabbit to soften the pace for Bandini. Not much chance at all.

14. Wilko

Won the biggest two year old race last year. Has not been as impressive this year, but has had troubled trips. This guy is a mystery horse to me. Has only won three times in 14 tries, but if he goes off a big price may be worth taking a shot.

15. Bandini

Easily won the Bluegrass and has improved huge for Pletcher. Should come from off the pace and has a great pedigree to get the distance. The question is how much he has left after that big run, and if he really beat the real Sun King and High Limit. As the likely second or third choice, I will be taking a stand against him. Appears talented but might be one of the last horses I would bet here given his price.

16. Bellamy Road

All eyes will be on the favorite. Won the Wood by 17 lengths and ran real fast doing it. This is no doubt Zito's best shot out of five to win the Derby. It will be interesting to see if he is tired from that big win a month ago, and how he will react to the abundance of other speed in the race. However, he's the most talented horse here and has a great shot to win.

17. Don't Get Mad

Punched his ticket to this race a week ago by winning the Derby Trial by 7. That was his career best, though he would still need to improve a lot in a short time to win this. I have a small future book ticket on this guy that I bought a while back, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

18. Closing Argument

Has been a cut below the best and not really sure how he is going to turn things around. Will be a longshot and deservedly so.

19. Going Wild

Appears to have no shot on paper after losing his last two by a combined 57 lengths. Not sure Lukas' line of thinking here by entering him. Maybe he knows something we don't, but I wouldn't bet on it.

20. Buzzard's Bay

Won the Santa Anita Derby, but that and 5 dollars will get you a Racing Form. It was a weak race where Wilko had problems, so not sure how much credit to give here. He definitely needs to improve and it will be very difficult to do with the outside post.

The Bet

All in all, it appears to be a very tough strong field with six or seven horses who I would not be surprised to see win this. Bellamy Road is the best horse in the race and may just be the next superstar. However, I feel he will be just too short of a price for me to back him. I am going to take a stand against Bandini and High Fly at short prices too. That being said, at around 6-1 (hopefully) the right bet is Afleet Alex to win. You get a horse not quite as good (right now) as Bellamy Road, but will be 3x the price and in my mind, has fewer question marks surrounding him. Also, I would watch the odds on Sun King, Noble Causeway, High Limit and Wilko. These horses are longer prices who have a good chance to run well. If any of them get away in the betting, say 20 to 25-1, I would consider make a small value bet on them too. There is also nothing wrong with hooking these longshots up with Afleet Alex and Bellamy Road in exactas and trifectas, if that is your inclination. As for me, this is a tough race. I will probably bet Afleet Alex, provided the price is right, and mabye back one of those longshots mentioned above if they go off too high. I still have future bets on a few contenders so I already have some nice wagers going.

Good Luck to everyone including local connections, Tim Ritchey (Afleet Alex) and Ramon Dominguez (High Limt). And of course a huge good luck goes out to my favorite trainers Bobby Frankel and especially my buddy Nick Zito. If I dont make any money I hope Zito's horses run 1-2-3-4-5 to beat me. And let's hope Zito's horse, In the Gold does well Friday in the Kentucky Oaks, I know I will have money on her.

Derby Field and Morning Line

2005-05-04T14:49:00.000-07:00

1. Sort it Out 50/1
2. Andromeda's Hero 50/1
3. Sun King 15/1
4. Noble Causeway 12/1
5. Coin Silver 20/1
6. High Limit 12/1
7. Flower Alley 20/1
8. Greater Good 20/1
9. Greeley's Galaxy 15/1
10. Giacomo 50/1
11. High Fly 8/1
12. Afleet Alex 9/2
13. Spanish Chestnut 50/1
14. Wilko 20/1
15. Bandini 6/1
16. Bellamy Road 5/2
17. Don't Get Mad 30/1
18. Closing Argument 30/1
19. Going Wild 50/1
20. Buzzard's Bay 20/1

Consolidator Out of Derby

2005-05-02T08:29:00.000-07:00

The first defection of Derby week came down earlier this morning. It was confirmed only a few hours ago by D. Wayne Lukas that his colt Consolidator, winner of the San Felipe Stakes, will not run in the Derby because of an injury to the front right ankle. Lukas said he noticed that the horse looked uncomfortable yesterday afternoon upon the completion of a workout. This morning, Lukas decided to have the ankle X-Rayed, and it revealed a fractured sesamoid in the right front. The Derby limits the numbers of starters to 20, and with this scratch, the door is now open for Illinois Derby winner Greeley's Galaxy to get in. Greeley's Galaxy had been previously number 21 on the Derby list due to the fact that he was not nominated early enough to the race, meaning he would be kept out of the Derby if 20 other horses entered. The list usually is narrowed down by graded stakes earnings, making the Greeley's Galaxy situation unique to the last few years.

Read the Bloodhorse.com Article Here

Major Contenders Put in Final Work

2005-05-01T20:48:00.000-07:00

Bellamy Road
One of three Zito horses working Sunday morning, the Derby favorite worked an impressive five furlongs breezing in 100.42 with the last quarter coming in under 24 seconds. He finished up fast and galloped out strong, suggesting he is still in good form and will be ready to tackle a big, tough field come Saturday.

High Fly
The little guy in Zito's barn also worked five furlongs and was stopped 100.38 with his last quarter coming under 24 seconds. It is not how fast this horse goes early that matters on Saturday, but how he finishes. Workouts are doing little to determine whether or not this colt wants to go the long mile and a quarter distance. Only Saturday will give us the answer, but he looks good and appears to be liking the Churchill surface.

Noble Causeway
The last of Zito's colts also worked five furlongs and beat the other two timewise by finishing in 59.91. His last quarter was slower than the other two, which is odd for a horse who likes to come off the pace. You have to wonder if Zito is trying to train a little more speed into this horse.

Bandini
The best of the Pletcher contingent worked today, as did Flower Alley. Bandini, the likely second choice behind Bellamy Road went five furlongs in 100.72 with his last quarter in 25 seconds. The clockers also made a point of noting that he did not gallop out as strong after the workout as the Zito horses did.

Sun King and High Limit Work Well

2005-04-28T15:49:00.000-07:00

Two of the top Derby contenders turned in impressive workouts today at Churchill Downs just nine days away from the Kentucky Derby. Sun King breezed five furlongs in 59.88 with clockers catching the last eight in 12.82. This work was all the more impressive considering Sun King ran fast so early in the work and went wide around the turn. He still stopped the clock in a blazing time on a slow track with little urging.

High Limit turned in a six furlong workout coming in at 113.3 with the last eight in 12.54. Like Sun King, he was not asked for much energy by his exercise rider. He seemed to do it all on his own. What makes this workout so impressive was that High Limit worked in tandem with Frankel's superstar 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper. Ghostzapper's work was only slated for five furlongs and in that span, it appeared that High Limit beat him to the wire, again under very little asking from the rider.

Both of these horses were criticized for losing the Bluegrass (especially Sun King), but it appears that they are showing no ill effects. They are gearing up impressively and maybe ready to peak the first Saturday in May.

Derby Clocker's Report (courtesy of the Daily Racing Form)

Afleet Alex Taking To Track Well

2005-04-26T20:43:00.000-07:00

On a cold Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs, Afleet Alex, one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby put in a strong five furlong workout, showing everyone he's doing fine after his dominant Arkansas Derby win. Alex worked the five panels breezing (less urging from the rider) and completed it in 59 seconds flat, the fastest work of the day at that distance. Regular rider Jeremy Rose was aboard for the workout, and both he and trainer Tim Ritchey seemed pleased. "He got back to barn and wasn't breathing very hard. Everything's on schedule," Ritchey said in the Daily Racing Form today. It was also revealed that Afleet Alex will have one more serious workout, coming Monday or Tuesday, before the big day on May 7.

Rockport Harbor Disappoints

2005-04-25T10:37:00.000-07:00

It appears as if there will be no repeat for John Servis, who won last year's Kentucky Derby with Smarty Jones. His star 3 year old this year, Rockport Harbor, needed a strong run in Saturday's Lexington Stakes at Keeneland to convince Servis that he was ready for the Derby. The rains came, and the track came up sloppy. This spelled disaster for Rockport Harbor who was clearly uncomfortable on the wet track. Servis said he knew after only one furlong that Rockport had no chance. Rockport Harbor who was sent off the 3-5 favorite raced wide around the first turn, never threatened and finished far back. The race did see a new player burst onto the scene, and no surprise he belongs to trainer Todd Pletcher. Coin Silver raced in midpack early off of a fast pace, made his move on the turn and drew off impressively in the stretch to win by 3 lengths over Sort it Out. Pletcher will need a new rider, as winning jockey Javier Castellano will be on favorite Bellamy Road. This was a strange race, and I believe Coin Silver got an ideal setup on a sloppy track that only a few of the horses actually were comfortable with. I was not all that impressed, but this colt is rapidly improving and may have some more development ready for the Derby.

Blues and Royals out of Derby

2005-04-18T17:37:00.000-07:00

It was said in a press release earlier today that Godolphin's only Derby hopeful, Blues and Royals, will not run in the Kentucky Derby. Apparently he suffered a small respitory problem that is going to force him to miss some training time. For a horse coming into the Derby with only one prep this year, training is crucial, especially having to ship across the world. He had previously stamped himself as a legit Derby contender with a huge win overseas in the UAE Derby, but the connections of this horse, thought it was best to keep him out of the May 7 Derby.

Big Bounce Backs

2005-04-18T08:28:00.000-07:00

This past Saturday marked the end of the main Derby prep schedule. Aside from the Lexington Stakes run next Saturday, all of the contenders have now gotten their final race in before the big one. For the first time in a while, Nick Zito did not take center stage. Rather, it was two big performances by a two horses who had been written off a bit in the past month. While these colts have solidified their status as serious Derby threats, a few others have confused the public even more.

Bluegrass Stakes
The maximum number of starters in the Derby is 20. When the number of entries exceeds the limit, the top twenty horses on the list in terms of Graded Stakes Earnings receive spots in the starting gate. It was imperative for the Todd Pletcher trained Bandini to finish strong in the Bluegrass to make sure he had enough earnings to get into the Derby field. Some critcized Pletcher for choosing the Bluegrass, the toughest prep of the year, to gain that money, especially after the foot problems that caused him to miss a race earlier this year. The critics were silenced resoundingly as Bandini took control on the far turn and drew away down the stretch to win the Bluegrass at Keeneland by six lengths. Frankel's High Limit was clearly second best, with Closing Argument third. High Limit appeared to be tired late and had trouble changing leads again. Zito trained Sun King, thought of as one of the Derby favorites, finished a poor fourth and was never a factor. It is worth noting that Nick Zito said pre-race that they were not going all out in this race, preferring to wait for Louisville. He wanted jockey Edgar Prado to keep Sun King outside of horses, finish well and go forward to the Derby. That is what happened, though I am not sure Zito liked the lackluster way it happened. Bandini however, was anything but lackluster. After going a bit wide on the first turn, he settled in midpack down the backside. As High Limit began to make his move, so did Bandini. Jockey John Velasquez brought Bandini to the outside of High Limit on the turn and flew past him decisively. Bandini was clearly best Saturday and will go into the Derby as one of the favorites. He continues to improve with each start and ran his best race ever in the Bluegrass. Still, I feel he might need to improve a little more to compete with the likes of Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex. The final time came back 1:50 and change, a nice effort given a slower track Saturday, but still not elite level yet. He may have just caught a field of quality horses who all did not run their "A" races. The disappointment was Consolidator, who never was in contention and never ran an inch. He finished a well beaten fifth.

Arkansas Derby
After the Rebel Stakes, almost everyone in the racing world wrote off Afleet Alex as a horse on the decline, not good enough to win the Derby. It took just 1:48.8 for Afleet Alex and jockey Jeremy Rose to vault themselves right back into the mix as one of the Derby favorites with an impressive eight length score in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. The last place finish in the Rebel Stakes in March was attributed to a lung infection, which looked like no problem Saturday. He had a similar trip to Bandini, settling in midpack early, then unleashing a powerful rally to take command on the turn. It was a long way back to Pletcher trained Flower Alley in second, with Zito backup horse, Andromeda's Hero third. The bettors did not exactly lose faith in Afleet Alex's ability to bounce back. They made him the 2-1 favorite in a field of 10. Despite the fact that the field quality did not match the Bluegrass, Afleet Alex was maybe more impressive than Bandini. The final time, though run over a faster track, was still clearly superior to Bandini. Afleet Alex always looked like the winner in Arkansas, relaxing early with a comfortable stride, ridden confidently from the start and finishing strong at the finish. This weekend saw two strong performances from horses who appear to be two of the favorites come May 7.

Zito's World

2005-04-11T09:09:00.000-07:00

If it seems as if Nick Zito or his horses are the subject of a post every week, you are correct. It is not because I have had the pleasure of meeting and conversing with him at Saratoga, it is not because his filly Bird Town won me ten thousand dollars in 2003, but because he may have the strongest group of horses ready to assault the Derby that I have ever seen. This weekend again, only strengthened that position. Bellamy Road stamped himself as the possible favorite come May 7.

Wood Memorial
Bellamy Road had been transfered to the Nick Zito barn over the winter by owner George Steinbrenner, to give him a better chance at winning the Derby. It appears The Boss got just what he wanted. Bellamy Road, coming off of only one allowance class win this year, destroyed the best horses in New York by winning the Wood Memorial by 17 lengths. After setting a fairly easy lead under hot jockey Javier Castellano, Bellamy Road took command on the far turn and powered away in the stretch stopping the clock in 147.16, setting a stakes record and equaling the track record. Not that it matters much, but Survivalist ran on late to be second over Scrappy T who finished third. The race never seemed to be in doubt. In fact, about 100 yards before the wire, Castellano pumped his fist and waved to the crowd in jubilation. Bellamy Road will go into the Derby off of two wins by a combined 32 lengths, which should make him the Derby favorite, depending on what happens next weekend. No doubt the performance was impressive, but did he peak too soon? This was clearly the best race of Bellamy Road's life, and one of the strongest performances by a three year old in a while. It is possible that such an effort could tire the horse out in the short term, causing a regression in the Derby. That combined with the fact that there seems to be a ton of early speed lined up for the Derby, is forcing me to be cautious in calling this horse the Derby winner. Further analysis will follow in the coming weeks.

Santa Anita Derby
This race was supposed to be where filly Sweet Catomine punched her ticket to Kentucky by beating the boys. That did not happen, and not many are sure just exactly what did happen Saturday. Longshot Buzzards Bay set a contested pace and dug in gamely to defeat longshot General John B and Wilko in a stretch long duel to win the Santa Anita Derby in 149.18. Wilko was very impressive, and appeared to be best in this race. Breaking from the outside post (11), Wilko raced five wide on the first turn and made a wide move into contention on the final turn. After this trouble, he tired a bit down the lane, which was not too surprising. The final time of the race was not fast, and given the trouble Wilko had, it appears that he ran a super race. It is tough to tell whether or not he still has something left in the tank for Kentucky, but he definitely showed he was the best out West. Sweet Catomine, the big favorite got a perfect trip behind the leaders on the rail, and tired to finish fifth. It was a strange performance, made even stranger after rumors surfaced that she had bled during a workout earlier in the week. The owner, Marty Wygod, hinted after the race that he was very close to scratching her. None of this was communicated to the bettors before the race however, and she burned up a lot of money as the favorite. I did not bet the race (I do not bet California racing traditionally), but I do feel bad for those who put money on Sweet Catomine, not just to win, but in the exotic bets (exacta, trifecta etc.) as well. A report in The Blood Horse details this story. In any case, it is doubtful now that Sweet Catomine will face the boys in the Kentucky Derby.

Rockport Harbor to go in the Lexington
The Arkansas Derby, to be run next week, suffered a blow, with the defection of Derby contender Rockport Harbor. After a workout on Sunday, it was announced that he would run a week later in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, the last real prep on the Derby schedule. With all of the health problems, Rockport Harbor missed almost a full week of training and John Servis said that he would not have the horse ready until the Lexington.

Brent's Derby Top Ten (as of April 4)

2005-04-04T09:07:00.000-07:00

1.) Sun King - appears to be cruising into the Derby with no setbacks. An easy win in the Tampa Bay Derby should set him up nicely for a final prep in the Bluegrass. This guy looked like a runner last year and has disappointed no one since. A strong effort at Keeneland in his last prep will most likely send him to Churchill Downs as the favorite.

2.) High Limit - super talented, but lightly raced. His three year old debut in Louisiana showed everyone he was the real deal. Next start may come in the Bluegrass against Sun King. It is difficult to win the Derby off of ony two preps, but with that nice Louisiana win under his belt, trainer Frankel is in a pretty good spot here.

3.) Consolidator - hard to tell how he will react to that huge win in the San Felipe. Was it a fluke? Rumor has it that he will also run in the Bluegrass, which would make that one of the most important preps in recent years, but trainers always change their minds. With a great pedigree (son of Storm Cat) it is almost certain he will get the Derby distance, it just comes down to if he's good enough.

4.) High Fly - has been the boss down South and gives Zito a great backup to Sun King. His gutsy win in the Florida Derby is his last prep before Kentucky. There are always questions surrounding this horse's ability to go long distances, so it will be interesting to see if the extra few weeks off help his chances.

5.) Bandini - was kept out of the Florida Derby with an alleged foot bruise, which means he could also run in the Bluegrass. No doubt the talent is there with Bandini, but Pletcher has needs everything to go right down the stretch given this horse being injured and so lightly raced.

6.) Noble Causeway - a great second in the Florida Derby after running five wide on the final turn. Couldn't quite get High Fly in the stretch but is developing quickly and could keep improving. It is undecided whether he will run again before May for Zito, who has a tremendous shot to get his third Derby this year.

7.) Rockport Harbor - with all of the injuries, Servis has his work cut out for him with this horse. Arkansas Derby is slated as the next start, but that is in serious jeopardy after the blood clot found in his neck. Another one who appears talented enough to get the job done, but the timing just is not good given all of his health issues. Even if he makes it to Kentucky, how much will he have left?

8.) Sweet Catomine - a real wild card here, she is the two year old filly champ and has been dominating her own sex enough to prompt Julio Canani to think Kentucky Derby. Much more will be known after next week's Santa Anita Derby in which she is a probable starter and one of the favorites.

9.) Giacomo - tough horse, who always tries hard. He tends to find trouble in races, either going wide or getting caught in traffic. That cannot happen if you want to win the Derby. Giacomo seems to be always clunking up for minor awards without really winning anything, so needs a big effort in the Santa Anita Derby to vault him into serious contender status.

10.) Afleet Alex - a few weeks back, he was number one, but after a horrible race in the Rebel and a subsequent lung infection, he is another one whose status is questionable. It appears that the infection has been cleared up which puts him on target for the Arkansas Derby. A powerful run there will bounce him right back in the mix. Another poor effort and it maybe the end of the Derby road for this guy.

Getting Down to Crunch Time

2005-04-04T08:32:00.000-07:00

This is what racing fans have been waiting for. The month of April is where the true Derby Fever strikes the heart of all of us. Most horses are racing in their final preps before the big day, and with the fickle nature of the game, we will soon see contenders become pretenders and vice versa. The entire picture takes such a clear focus, we can now start turning our attention from "who will run in the Derby" to "who will win the Derby". Last weekend saw the first of these "final tuneups". Much more will come.

Florida Derby
Nick Zito has had a stacked deck down in Miami all winter, and after the Todd Pletcher trained Bandini was declared out of the race on Wednesday with a foot bruise, Zito found himself sitting on the two favorites, Noble Causeway and High Fly. He had never won the Florida Derby before, and it became clear this was his best shot. The rest of the field was filled out with up and comers trying to spoil the day for Zito, but it was to no avail. High Fly, in his final start before the Derby, continued his dominance of Florida with another gutty win under jockey Jerry Bailey. Bailey had High Fly just off the lead of pacesetter B B Best, and much like the Fountain of Youth moved High Fly to take command on the turn. Saturday was different however, because instead of Bandini, it was stablemate Noble Causeway breathing down his neck in the stretch. High Fly dug in gamely and won by a length and a half over Noble Causeway in a time of 149.43 for the nine furlong (1 and 1/8 mile) race. This marked the first time in 30 years a trainer had run one-two in this prestigious race, now being run for the first time five weeks before the Derby. The intention is to make this a final prep as opposed to a secondary stepping stone to another prep, like it was in the past. Both High Fly and Noble Causeway came out of the race in good order, and Zito was quick to say that High Fly would not run again until the Kentucky Derby. He was not as sure with Noble Causeway, who may run again before May 7. Zito could not ask for a better winter campaign for High Fly, who swept the two biggest races in Florida and is now headed to the Derby as one of the favorites. High Fly has been gritty and determined, but the question remains if he wants to go the extra furlong in the big one. We will not know until May 7.

Rockport Harbor hurt AGAIN
Last year John Servis had a perfect run with Derby winner Smarty Jones. Luck turns sour quickly, as his new star Rockport Harbor seems to get hurt every week. This time, it was a blood clot found in his neck. According to the Daily Racing Form, he will not return to the track again until Wednesday. Servis has given him antibiotics and blood thinners to clear the problem up, but with this and the foot problems, his status remains up in the air for the Arkansas Derby in two weeks, and the Kentucky Derby in general.

Blues and Royals to the Derby
Two weeks ago, while the three year old eyes were watching Pletcher trained Flower Alley win a sloppy, watered down version of the Lane's End stakes at Turfway, a horse named Blues and Royals was making waves halfway around the world. Owned by the Godolphin Racing Stable, which consists of the ruling family of the United Arab Emirates, Blues and Royals destroyed the field in the UAE Derby in Dubai under the lights by 12 lengths, in a fast time. The field did not consist of much except for the disappointing Shamardal, who had been Godolphin's Derby hope this year until now. It was announced that Blues and Royals will run next in the Kentucky Derby, which means he will come into it off of only one prep race this year. The Sheiks of Godolphin have always been obsessed with winning the Kentucky Derby, but have used a light, short European prep schedule to get them there. This has not worked in the past, and many Americans have criticized the approach. They appear to have talented horses every year, but go about preparing them for the Derby the wrong way. Will this year be different? No one will know until May 7, but this horse sure did impress many two weeks ago.

Roman Ruler out of Derby

2005-03-21T17:39:00.000-08:00

A last place finish from a top level horse such as Roman Ruler rarely passes without an excuse, and in this case, the excuse is legit. After suffering from a quarter crack in his hoof for some time now, Bob Baffert has decided to take him off the Derby trail, according to Daily Racing Form. The quarter crack was aggrevated again in the San Felipe stakes on Saturday. Apparently, Baffert was fully aware of the chance of it hurting Roman Ruler during the race. Baffert told jockey Gary Stevens that if Ruler was not running well to just handle him carefully and nurse him back to the wire. This explains the last place finish.

Speaking of quarter cracks, it was also found that fourth place finisher in the San Felipe, Wilko, had one as well. This matches an old one that was found on another hoof in December. It is yet to be determined the seriousness of the crack. The next week will probably bring more information on the status of Wilko for the Derby.

Many Questions and Fewer Answers

2005-03-20T19:35:00.000-08:00

This weekend was definitely the most intriguing and action packed of the Derby Trail thus far. There were four big preps located at four different tracks featuring many of the top contenders for the Derby. Some of these horses lived up to expectations, others failed miserably, leaving the public scratching their heads.

Rebel Stakes
When Tim Ritchey decided to run Afleet Alex in the Mountain Valley Stakes two weeks ago, it appeared as if he got what he wanted. The horse faced soft competition, winning by three lengths. It appeared as if Alex had something left in the tank, as he won without much asking from the jockey. He could have won by more. Nevertheless, numbers wise, on paper, it was the fastest race of his career. In racing, when a horse returns from a long layoff, runs a career best and is wheeled back in only two weeks against the some of the best horses of his generation, disaster could strike. This is exactly what happened at Oaklawn Saturday in the Rebel Stakes. Returning in only two weeks, 3-5 favorite Afleet Alex ran the worst race of his life and finished last. He had a perfect trip sitting a few lengths off the pace, and when asked, Alex did not respond at all. Rockport Harbor, making his three year old debut broke in a tangle, rushed to the lead and dug in gamely in the stretch, just getting caught by newcomer Greater Good in the final strides. It was a strange race beginning to end, given the poor start for Rockport Harbor and the no show that was Afleet Alex. It is worth noting the time of the race, 144.92, was only two fifths of a second faster than a race run earlier by cheap horses of lesser caliber. Rockport impressed many Saturday. He will probably run once more before the Derby, which will come at Oaklawn again. Looking at his tough trip and determination down the stretch, he can be considered a top flight contender for the Derby. The question is how much does he have left after that hard race? Afleet Alex was found to have a minor lung infection, and needs some time off. He will be treated with anti-biotics for a week, but remains on target for the Arkansas Derby where he will meet Rockport Harbor and Greater Good again. Can he turn the tables? Will he have anything left in the tank after the illness and the two races? Again, only time will tell.

San Felipe
Probably the deepest race in terms of potential Derby talent, the San Felipe at Santa Anita, left us wondering what happened to a few of those contenders. The race consisted of Breeders Cup Juvenile winner, Wilko, Baffert star Roman Ruler, hard luck Giacomo, Ron Ellis backup Don't Get Mad, and D. Wayne Lukas trained Consolidator. It turned out to be a one horse race as Consolidator, stalked the pace and drew off in the stretch winning by 7 in a stakes record time of 140.11 under up and coming star jockey Rafael Bejarano (personal favorite of this blog's author). Roman Ruler had a little bit of a slow start, but recovered and was no impact on the race. Wilko, Giacomo and Don't Get Mad all closed ground on the turn and appeared as if they would challenge Consolidator, but never got any closer, and looked hopelessly beaten by the end. Giacomo managed second with a fast closing Dont Get Mad third. Wilko was wide on both turns and did well to finish to fourth. It was a good race for Wilko, considering it was his first race in four months. The star of the race obviously was Consolidator who turned in a breakout performance and stamped himself as the top gun out West, and one of the serious threats to take the Derby. Lukas has won almost every major race in America numerous times (including the Derby) and he knows how to get the job done come May. Again, the question remains if Consolidator peaked too soon, and if he will be able to come up huge again in a few months. Next start for most of these horses will come in the Santa Anita Derby in a few weeks.

Gotham Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby
Two of the lesser Derby preps still saw some stars take center stage. In the Gotham at Aquedect, Survivalist came from off the pace to win in a close, blanket three horse photo finish over Pavo and the favorite Galloping Grocer. The pace of the race was torrid, which allowed those coming from behind to benefit. There was a disqualification as Pavo was taken down to fourth after his jockey Alan Garcia struck fourth place finisher, Naughty New Yorker in the face. Survivalist remained on the outside clear of the problems to win by three quarters of a length. Ridden by Richard Migliore and trained by superstar Shug McGaughey, Survivalist is a lightly raced, rapidly improving colt who still has more room to develop. He may be a just be a major player come May.

The Tampa Day Derby was basically a paid workout for top Derby contender Sun King. Nick Zito has a barn full of potential Derby winners, so he has decided to keep them away from each other for as long as possible. This started Saturday by running probably his best horse at Tampa Bay Downs against a field of severely overmatched horses. Ridden by Edgar Prado, Sun King took the lead suprisingly and went wire to wire to win by three easy lengths. There were a few horses who challenged him on the turn, but two cracks of Prado's whip was all that was needed to pull away. His final time of 143.98 was just a half tick off the track record, although Tampa Day Downs doesn't exactly see superstars that often. Zito said after the race that Sun King will run next in the Bluegrass stakes at Keeneland. I would not argue with anyone who moves Sun King to the top of the list as the new Derby Favorite, a title which has not turned out well for the last few who held it, Declan's Moon and Afleet Alex.

Big Winners and Big Losers

2005-03-14T08:51:00.000-08:00

This past weekend saw a prime example of the ups and downs of the racing game, specifically the months leading up to the prestigous Kentucky Derby. Each week we see new horses emerge as contenders and old favorites fall by the wayside. We saw some of the biggest news of the year come out Saturday; the trail is really heating up as we approach April.

Declan's Moon Out
Shocking news came out of California Saturday, as it was announced that Declan's Moon, the big favorite for the Derby, is injured and will miss the entire Triple Crown. Trainer Ron Ellis explained that it was a bone chip in one of his knees that has taken his horse out of contention. It is not known yet if the chip requires surgery, but Declan's Moon will be re-evaluated in 60 days to determine the status. Evidently, the bone chip happened during his last race, a dominant win in the Santa Catalina. Some feel that maybe the track was too hard, and the stress took its toll. Perhaps it was giving the horse only two preps before the Derby, which forced Ellis to crank him up too much too soon. Either way, the injury will cost the horse and the owners a great shot at racing's most coveted prize, the Derby Trophy. This defection now leaves Afleet Alex as the new Derby favorite.

Frankel Unveils Budding Star
There was a lot of buzz on the backstretch for months about a horse named High Limit (not to be confused with High Fly), a lightly raced horse who had just been transfered to ace Bobby Frankel's barn. The hype turned out to be well deserved as High Limit led wire to wire, drawing away strongly in the Louisiana Derby Saturday at the Fairgrounds. Under Delaware Park star jockey Ramon Dominguez, High Limit jumped out to an early lead under minimal pace pressure from Vicarage. The two became hooked up in a duel around the turn, but High Limit, making his first start in five months, put Vicarage away and drew off down the long stretch of the Fairgrounds to win by four in a time of 1:42.7. This race marked the first time High Limit faced any kind of strong competition, and he handled them with ease. With the defection of Declan's Moon, this horse has burst onto scene and stamped his name as a strong contender for the Derby. He will only have one more prep before the Derby, but as I said earlier, if anyone can get the job done, it is trainer Bobby Frankel, maybe the best who ever lived.

Zito's Barn Gets Better
It would seem hard to believe that Nick Zito could be in the Derby headlines every single week, but when you have the loaded barn that he does, it is possible. This week, Zito sent out Bellamy Road in an allowance race, making his first start for the new trainer. Zito's hot streak continued as Bellamy Road pulverized the field going wire to wire winning the one mile race by 15 lengths. The competition was not particularly strong, but the performance was visually and statistically impressive. This marks yet another Derby contender for Zito, who already trains High Fly, Sun King and Noble Causeway. It will interesting to see how Zito spreads these horses out, keeping them out of each other's way until the Derby.

Other News
A female has only won the Kentucky Derby three times, and not since Winning Colors in 1988, but there may be a star filly on the horizon. Sweet Catomine, the 2 year old filly Champion continues to dominate her own sex after a strong win by three in the Santa Anita Oaks on Sunday. Not only does she have a large body (almost male like), but this filly has the off the pace running style that usually wins most Kentucky Derbies. She may be the best young female horse we've seen in quite a while, and trainer Julio Canani is seriously considering running her in April's Santa Anita Derby to see if she can compete with the boys.

Also, next week in Arkansas, the Rebel Stakes will be run at Oaklawn. It has been billed as a duel between Afleet Alex and Rockport Harbor, but rumors have circulated that Rockport Harbor may not run because of foot problems. It was found this weekend that Rockport Harbor was favoring his right front hoof, usually indicating a problem. Trainer John Servis assures the world that this horse will run next week, but that remains to be seen.

Picture Takes Better Focus (Weekend Recap)

2005-03-06T18:33:00.000-08:00

The few months before the Derby are usually filled with more questions than answers, leaving the public virtually clueless as to who the true contenders are. This problem comes when the early, established favorites tend to give way to new, fast developing up and comers. So far in 2005, we have seen the early contenders remain strong, and this weekend was full of examples.

Fountain of Youth Stakes
Regarded as the top prep so far on the Derby trail, the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream lived up to the billing with the two main stars shining bright. High Fly, the race favorite, made his first start for new trainer, Derby ace Nick Zito, and did not disappoint by winning nicely. Being ridden for the first time by the great Jerry Bailey, High Fly found himself just a few lengths off the quick pace set by B. B. Best. On the far turn Bailey moved High Fly to the lead and opened up a three length advantage in the stretch. Todd Pletcher's Bandini, appeared to be tiring in the lane, but found something extra late to make a belated run at High Fly to no avail. Early leader B B Best hung on for third. The final margin of victory was three quarters of a length in a final time of 1:49.70 over a track which had some rain the day before. Some critics were more impressed with Bandini than High Fly. They feel Bandini was wide and really had more energy late than High Fly, which is impressive for a horse only making his fourth career start. Only time will tell if the critics are right, but my opinion is that both horses established themselves as strong Derby contenders. High Fly's distance limitations may be coming into question now, however, as the races get longer, but Nick Zito knows how to get horses ready to run 1 1/4 mile Derby Day. Bandini is getting very good, very fast. Is it too much development in such a short time, though? Again, the answers will come in the coming months. These two will probably run in the Florida Derby next.

Santa Catalina Stakes
This race marked the three year old debut of undefeated Derby favorite Declan's Moon. The rest of the field consisted of a few nice, fast horses from the west, but not much else. Trainer Ron Ellis appeared to have Declan's Moon ready run huge Saturday at Santa Anita, and the horse did just that. After going four wide on the first turn and three wide on the far turn, Declan's Moon still had enough energy to explode powerfully down the lane and draw off easily by two in a quick 1:42 for the 1 1/16 mile race. The D Wayne Lukas trained Going Wild came up the rail to be second, but was no threat to the sharp winner of this race. The Santa Anita Derby is the next start for Declan's Moon who remains the favorite for the Derby and may have even strengthened that position. The problem may come down the road, though. With only two starts before the Derby, was this tough, impressive race a little more than the connections of Declan's Moon wanted? Would they rather have him come into the Derby off easier races? That's the issues you face when you only give a horse two starts before the Derby. The tradeoff between seasoning and freshness becomes important. We will have to see how this tradeoff plays out, but Declan's Moon surely impressed many this week.

Other Derby Happenings
Trainer Tim Ritchey called an audible and decided to run Afleet Alex Saturday in the Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn. This was in an effort to go into the Derby with three prep races instead of two. The results was an impressive, yet not too draining victory by almost three lengths. Ridden by Jeremy Rose, Alex settled toward the back of the pack and made an explosive rally pulling away strongly. This race served as prep to the Rebel Stakes in two weeks. He will face much better competition then but will probably go into that race as the favorite. Two weeks in between races is not much time for a horse to recover, so it will be interesting to see how Afleet Alex responds to having races crammed into a short period of time.

Gulfstream Park also saw another impressive performance by yet another talented Nick Zito colt. Noble Causeway won a first level allowance race Saturday by four lengths. He unleashed a powerful rally on the turn and pulled away decisively to beat a good field of allowance runners. This is another horse who is lightly raced and developing quickly. Nick Zito has a barn loaded with Derby prospects (High Fly, Sun King, Noble Causeway etc.) and has many options where to run this horse next. The connections are undecided, but it will be exciting to see this colt with a great pedigree take on some of the big boys in the division.

The Calm Before the Storm

2005-02-27T20:01:00.000-08:00

With the next few weeks being so wild on the Derby trail with huge preps every weekend, this week was probably the last one we are going to get without much noise. There were, however, a few important happenings this week, so here we go:

Trainer Nick Zito's best shot for another Derby is looking better than ever, as Sun King made his three year old debut Saturday in an allowance prep at Gulfstream Park. Ridden by Edgar Prado, Sun King remained wide throughout the backstretch of this mile race, before unleashing a visually impressive rally. He pulled away in the stretch to win by five in a quick 1:36 over some pretty tough rivals for an allowance race. Zito said he was not sure where the next start would come, but was raving about this performance. "That was extremely impressive," said Zito after the race. Sun King was layed off for a few months following his third place finish in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in October, but came back sharp Saturday. Zito, one of the best in the game, has won the Derby twice in the 90's, and this horse may be the one to give him number three.

In other news this weekend, highly regarded colt Harlington was officially taken off the Derby trail by trainer Todd Pletcher after wrenching his ankle in last month's Risen Star Stakes. The X-Rays came back negative, but after the loss of training time and the fact that this horse is still lightly raced, Pletcher decided to remove him from consideration. Harlington had previously won his first two starts before tiring to finish off the board as the favorite in the Risen Star.

A minor three year old stake was run this weekend at Sunland Park. The Borderland Derby taken by Southern Africa, a nice three year old trained by Michael Puhich. He did not beat a very imposing group and needs to improve a little bit more before being given serious thought as a Derby prospect.

Next week's big prep race, the Fountain of Youth Stakes, will pit some of the best horses in the East against each other in the country's first real Derby Prep. Also, next week will see the return of two year old champ and Derby favorite Declan's Moon in the Santa Catalina stakes. I will be back then to update you on the latest happenings. Until then, take care and good luck!

Brent's Derby Top Ten

2005-02-27T19:16:00.001-08:00

1.) Declan's Moon
The two year old champ has been quiet this year and will only have two prep races before the Derby. This method has not been successful in the past, but he is in the hands of a capable trainer, Ron Ellis, and appears to be very talented. He's the leader out west until proven otherwise. His next start will come in Saturday's Santa Catalina Stakes.

2.) Afleet Alex
Runner up for two year old champ and also a good second in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile makes him a prime contender. He will also only have two preps for the Derby for trainer Tim Ritchey, but has been working well at Oaklawn. Alex gets a great jockey switch to John Velazquez. We will know more when he debuts in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn against some heavy hitters on March 19.

3.) Wilko
This battle tested veteran has also not run yet as a three year old and will only have two starts before the Derby. He won the biggest two year old race, the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, last year and had 11 starts as a two year old, so seasoning might not be an issue. He needs to step up his game if he is going to turn the tables after losing to Declan's Moon last year. Wilko goes next in the San Felipe Stakes on March 19.

4.) Sun King
He made his three year old debut Saturday in an allowance race at Gulfstream and did not disappoint. After being hung wide the whole race, he finished powerfully down the stretch to pull away and win easily. Being in the hands of two time Derby winnner Nick Zito (and personal favorite of this blog's author) means he will get the best handling possible. Third place finisher in the BC Juvenile may just be the best as the months progress. Next start undecided.

5.) Rockport Harbor
He comes from the same connections as last year's Derby winner Smarty Jones. Trainer John Servis will only give him two preps before the big one, the first of which comes against Afleet Alex in the Rebel. Rockport probably is not as talented as Smarty nor does he have as good a pedigree, but Servis is high on him and time will tell.

6.) Bandini
This colt has developed a great deal since being moved to Florida. He is lightly raced and has a devastating double digit allowance win to his credit, not to mention a great pedigree. Top gun trainer Todd Pletcher (another favorite of mine) believes this guy is his best shot at that elusive Derby trophy. The next start will come in either Saturday's Fountain of Youth or March 12 Louisiana Derby.

7.) High Fly
The leader of the pack down in Florida was recently transfered to Nick Zito's barn in an attempt to get him ready for the big one. He won the Aventura by nine lengths in January and was an unlucky third in the Holy Bull Stakes. That race found him wide on both turns and swerving throughout the stretch. No doubt the talent is there, it's just a matter of how far he wants to go. Next start comes in the Fountain of Youth.

8.) Scipion
Cost seven figures as a yearling and the talent did not seem to justify the price tag until his last start, a fast closing victory in the Risen Star stakes. Former Eurpoean stud trainer Patrick Biancone can get the job done and is hoping for a repeat performance in the Louisiana Derby. Another horse with a great pedigree and lots of potential.

9.) Don't Get Mad
Burst onto the scene with a great closing second in the San Vincente stakes last month. This is the backup horse to Declan's Moon trainer Ron Ellis, but he feels this one is improving at the right time. His next start comes in the San Felipe and if he keeps moving forward, could be a force to reckon with come Derby Day.

10.) High Limit
This lightly raced colt was purchased privately in October and shipped to Bobby Frankel (another favorite of mine) after two huge wins at Delaware against lesser company. He will only have two starts before the Derby and that trail starts Saturday in either the Swale or Fountain of Youth Stakes, both at Gulfstream. Frankel is the best in the game, and if anyone can get the job done off of two preps it is him. There has been so much buzz on the backstretch about this horse, it will be interesting to see how he runs this weekend.

On the Bubble
Keep a close eye on Giacomo, a hard luck third in the Sham stakes. He lost a front shoe and was wide the entire race. Also on the bubble is Galloping Grocer who was once regarded as a top contender. His loss in the Whirlaway was disappointing and needs to bounce back soon. Finally, talented colt Roman Ruler will return to the races soon. He is in the hands of three time Derby winner Bob Baffert and should be Baffert's best hope this year.

Brent's Derby Top Ten

2005-02-27T19:16:00.000-08:00

About the Watch

2005-02-16T13:57:00.000-08:00

This watch serves as an insight into the latest happenings on the road to the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown.